South Florida Real Estate Report: September 2026

This report covers the residential property market in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe counties, with Monroe standing in for the Florida Keys. It follows four threads: prices and sales, mortgage lending and credit, rents and migration, and the businesses that sell and manage homes, with separate attention to condo building safety and flood costs. Every figure comes from public data published by federal agencies, the State of Florida and local governments. Where Pixedi combined county files into four-county totals, those totals are its own compilation of the same public records. Many of the most detailed figures describe 2025 or earlier, and the text says so each time.

Key findings

• Miami metro home prices set a new high in July 2026, +0.4% above the previous peak on the Freddie Mac index, after rising +2.6% in the year to July 2026.
• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.03% in late September 2026, which is +0.73 percentage points versus a year earlier.
• Lenders originated 51,304 home purchase mortgages in the four counties in 2025, a level that was -32.7% versus 2019.
• 74.8% of condo units in the four counties are in buildings at least 30 years old, the age that triggers Florida milestone inspections.
• In Monroe County, 52.1% of qualified residential sales were $1 million or more in 2025, and the median single-family sale price was $1,135,000.
• Net domestic migration was -115,655 people in the year to July 2025, while net international migration added 93,809.
• The average NFIP flood policy taking effect in the four counties in August 2026 cost $1,189, a change of +8.0% from the same month a year earlier.
• Recorded residential deed transfers in January to April 2026 changed -0.2% versus a year earlier (preliminary), which points to a sales market that is holding level.

Prices: a new peak, reached slowly

The latest full-year county data, for 2025, puts the median qualified single-family sale price at $672,300 in Miami-Dade, $575,000 in Broward, $625,000 in Palm Beach and $1,135,000 in Monroe. Condo medians spread much wider: $432,200 in Miami-Dade, $230,000 in Broward, $275,000 in Palm Beach and $800,000 in Monroe. The gap between houses and condos is small in Miami-Dade and the Keys and large in Broward and Palm Beach, so a condo in the two middle counties is a very different product, and a very different buyer, from a house down the street.

• Miami-Dade$672,300
• Broward$575,000
• Palm Beach$625,000
• Monroe$1,135,000

Source: Florida Department of Revenue

Price growth has slowed sharply from the post-2019 surge but has not reversed. On the FHFA county index, prices in 2025 changed +2.8% in Miami-Dade, +0.5% in Broward, +1.2% in Palm Beach and +2.1% in Monroe. Those modest annual gains sit on top of a large run-up: Miami-Dade prices changed +87.0% between 2019 and 2025, and Monroe prices changed +67.2%. The more recent Freddie Mac index shows the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro up +2.6% in the year to July 2026, ahead of Florida statewide at +1.6% and the national figure of +2.2%. In July 2026 the metro index set a new high, +0.4% above its previous peak, and stood +83.3% above July 2019. For a seller, that means values are at or near their best level on record; for a buyer, it means the discount many were waiting for has not shown up in the index.

Sales volume is large and top-heavy. The four counties recorded 79,777 qualified single-family and condo sales in 2025, worth $68.8 billion. Condos made up 42.3% of those sales, and 18.4% closed at $1 million or more. At the very top end the four counties saw 398 sales of $10 million or more, while in Monroe the million-dollar tier is close to the norm, with 52.1% of residential sales at $1 million or more. The early read on 2026 is flat, with recorded deed transfers changing -0.2% in January to April 2026 versus a year earlier, a preliminary figure.

The preliminary 2026 tax roll gives a wider view of what owners hold. The just (market) value of all real property in the four counties totals $1.86 trillion, and residential parcels account for 76.7% of it. The median single-family home carries a just value of $505,150, and in Monroe that median is $905,945. These county estimates come in below the 2025 sale medians, so owners reading a tax notice should not treat the just value as an asking price.

Financing: dearer money and fewer purchase loans

Borrowing costs have moved against buyers this year. The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.03% in late September 2026, +0.73 percentage points above a year earlier and above the 6.36% average of the past 52 weeks. A buyer shopping today faces a higher monthly payment on the same loan than a buyer who locked at almost any point in the past year.

7.0%30-year fixed rate

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey

The latest lending data, for 2025, shows how much the purchase market has shrunk. Lenders originated 51,304 home purchase mortgages in the four counties, totaling $30.9 billion, with an average loan of $602,000. Originations changed -5.4% from 2024 and were -32.7% versus 2019. Lenders denied 18.8% of purchase applications that reached a decision. FHA loans made up 13.1% of all originated mortgages, and cash-out refinances were 18.1% of originations, a sign that many owners are drawing on equity while holding on to low-rate first mortgages.

Distress is low but edging up. In the Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall metro division, 1.0% of mortgages were 90 or more days past due in the first quarter of 2026, a change of +0.1 percentage points from a year earlier. The share in foreclosure was 0.3%, up +0.2 percentage points. Both figures are preliminary. Neither suggests a wave of forced sales, but the direction is worth watching for anyone who buys distressed property or lends against it.

Rents, ownership and who is moving

Rent growth has cooled to a normal pace after a steep climb. In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach consumer price index, rent of primary residence changed +2.4% in the year to August 2026, and owners' equivalent rent changed +2.9%. Since August 2019 those measures have changed +51.7% and +50.3%. HUD's fiscal 2026 Fair Market Rent for a two-bedroom unit is $2,436 a month in Miami-Dade, a change of +4.6% from the prior year and +67.5% since fiscal 2019. In Monroe it is $2,504, up +10.1% in one year and +52.7% since fiscal 2019. The Keys figure stands out because the one-year jump is so much larger than on the mainland.

Supply of rentals looks looser than a few years ago. The metro rental vacancy rate was 9.1% in the second quarter of 2026 and the homeownership rate was 59.6%, both from a Census survey with a wide margin of error. The longer American Community Survey average, covering 2020 to 2024, puts four-county homeownership at 60.6%, the Miami-Dade median gross rent at $1,829 and the Miami-Dade median owner-occupied home value at $463,000. Those survey figures lag the market and describe the period before the most recent price and rent levels.

Ownership patterns differ sharply by property type. On the preliminary 2026 roll, 75.1% of single-family homes in the four counties are homesteaded primary residences. Only 37.0% of Miami-Dade condo units carry a homestead exemption, with the rest held as investor, rental or second homes, and in Monroe the homesteaded share of condo units is 17.8%. A condo association in Miami-Dade or the Keys is therefore mostly answering to owners who do not live there full time.

Migration is pulling in two directions. The four counties had an estimated 6,471,478 residents on July 1, 2025. Net international migration added 93,809 people in the year to July 2025, while net domestic migration was -115,655. The IRS data, which is older and covers the 2022 to 2023 tax years, shows 139,657 households moving in, and the incoming households brought $4.01 billion more adjusted gross income than departing households took with them. The average in-moving household reported $128,900 of income, compared with $82,800 for the average departing household. The region is losing people to other states while gaining higher-income households, which fits the pattern of rising prices alongside flat sales.

Supply: steady permits and an aging condo stock

New construction continues at a steady clip. The four counties permitted 15,121 new housing units in January to August 2026, a change of -0.7% versus the same months of 2025. Buildings with five or more units accounted for 65.7% of those permits, so most new supply is apartments and condos. Full-year 2025 permitted units were +11.1% versus 2019. The preliminary 2026 tax roll lists 10,507 single-family homes and condo units built in 2025, and new construction added $19.6 billion of taxable value.

Against that, the existing stock is large and old. The four counties contain 1,192,702 single-family parcels and 838,405 condo unit parcels. 74.8% of those condo units sit in buildings at least 30 years old, the age at which Florida's milestone inspection law applies. Local records show how far the process still has to go. In the City of Miami, 2,412 buildings came due for 40-year (or later) recertification over 2021 to 2025, and 34.8% of them are still listed as pending. Unincorporated Palm Beach County tracks 289 condominium buildings under the milestone law, and 46.0% have completed the process. Both local figures are preliminary.

For condo owners, this is the figure that matters most in a sale. A unit in an older building with inspection work outstanding carries a cost that buyers and lenders will ask about, and the local data suggests a large share of buildings have not yet closed out the process.

Flood and hazard costs

Flood insurance coverage varies widely across the region. FEMA's penetration rates show 33.4% of residential structures in Miami-Dade carrying NFIP flood insurance, 19.2% in Broward, 13.0% in Palm Beach and 58.2% in Monroe. Inside the high-risk flood zone, 74.5% of Miami-Dade residential structures are covered. Outside those zones, most homes in the three mainland counties have no federal flood policy.

• Miami-Dade33.4%
• Broward19.2%
• Palm Beach13%
• Monroe58.2%

Source: FEMA National Flood Insurance Program

The cost of that coverage is climbing. The average NFIP policy taking effect in the four counties in August 2026 cost $1,189, a change of +8.0% from the same month a year earlier and +59.8% versus the same month of 2019. Policies written or renewed changed -4.1% in the twelve months to August 2026 versus the prior twelve months, a preliminary figure, and annual policy volume stood +0.8% versus 2019. Rising cost and a small drop in policies may mean some owners are letting coverage lapse, though the data does not say why.

Claims were light in 2025: NFIP paid $13.5 million on 295 claims for losses in the four counties, both preliminary. The ten-year picture is heavier, with payments totaling $0.95 billion over 2016 to 2025. FEMA's National Risk Index estimates the four counties face $2.08 billion a year in expected losses from natural hazards, and hurricanes account for 46.2% of that. One quiet year for flood claims does not change the long-run exposure, and buyers comparing homes should budget for insurance as a real line item.

The trade: agents, managers and listed firms

The brokerage business in South Florida is mostly people working alone. Payroll employment at real estate agents and brokers in the four counties averaged 10,555 in 2025, a change of -1.4% from the prior year, spread across 6,270 establishments with employees. Average annual pay for those payroll employees was $88,508. Census counted 35,511 self-employed agents and brokers without employees in 2024, far more than the payroll workforce. Miami-Dade alone has 1,512 real estate firm and branch office business tax accounts on its 2026 roll, a preliminary count. An agent competing for listings is competing mainly with other independents, and flat sales volume means that pool is sharing roughly the same number of transactions as before.

Property management is where payroll jobs are growing. Employment at residential property managers averaged 29,840 in 2025, a change of +3.1% from the prior year. Census counted another 59,622 nonemployer businesses as lessors of real estate in 2024, mostly individual landlords, and Miami-Dade has 7,569 business tax accounts for renting apartments, hotels or commercial space on its 2026 roll (preliminary). With so many condo units held by non-residents and rental vacancy looking looser, demand for management services has a clear base.

Listed companies show a split between selling and building. The combined annual revenue of the two U.S.-listed residential brokerages with a large South Florida presence was $8.0 billion in their latest fiscal years to December 2025, a change of +20.7%. The two largest U.S.-listed homebuilders had combined revenue of $68.4 billion in fiscal years to November 2025, a change of -5.3%. Both figures are national and preliminary, so they describe the companies more than the local market, but they match what the local data suggests: brokerage revenue can rise in a flat market while builders feel the pressure of higher rates.

What changed since the last edition

This is the first edition of the South Florida Real Estate Report, and future editions will track month-to-month movement against the figures published here. The newest data in this edition is the Freddie Mac mortgage rate survey for late September 2026, the August 2026 consumer price index and NFIP policy data, the Census building permits for January to August 2026, and the Freddie Mac house price index for July 2026.

Methodology and sources

Sale prices, sales counts, sales value and price bands come from the Florida Department of Revenue sales file for 2025, using qualified sales only. Just values, parcel counts, homestead shares, building ages and new construction come from the Florida Department of Revenue 2026 tax roll files, which are preliminary. Recorded deed transfers for January to April 2026 come from county recording data and are preliminary.

House price indexes come from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (county-level annual data through 2025) and Freddie Mac (metro, state and national data through July 2026). Mortgage rates come from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of late September 2026. Rent and owners' equivalent rent come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics consumer price index for the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach area through August 2026. Rental vacancy and homeownership come from the Census Bureau Housing Vacancy Survey for the second quarter of 2026 and the American Community Survey 5-year estimates for 2020 to 2024. Fair Market Rents come from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development for fiscal 2026.

Migration figures come from IRS county-to-county migration data for the 2022 to 2023 tax years and Census population estimates for July 2025. Mortgage originations, denials and loan types come from 2025 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data. Delinquency and foreclosure shares come from the FHFA National Mortgage Database for the first quarter of 2026. Building permits come from the Census Building Permits Survey. Flood insurance penetration, policies, average policy cost and claims come from FEMA's National Flood Insurance Program data, and hazard losses come from FEMA's National Risk Index. Employment and pay come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for 2025, and self-employed counts come from Census Nonemployer Statistics for 2024. Local counts come from the Miami-Dade County local business tax roll, the City of Miami building recertification list and Palm Beach County's milestone inspection tracking. Listed company revenue comes from annual 10-K filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The following figures are preliminary: the January to April 2026 deed transfer change; all 2026 tax roll figures (total just value, residential share, parcel counts, condo building age, homestead shares, median just values, new units and new construction value); the second-quarter 2026 rental vacancy and homeownership rates; the 2025 NFIP claim payments and claim count; the NFIP policy volume changes; the first-quarter 2026 delinquency and foreclosure shares and their changes; the Miami-Dade business tax account counts; the City of Miami recertification figures; the Palm Beach County milestone figures; and the listed brokerage and homebuilder revenue figures.

Sources

1. Florida Department of Revenue
2. Federal Housing Finance Agency
3. Freddie Mac
4. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. U.S. Census Bureau
6. U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
7. Internal Revenue Service
8. FEMA
9. Securities and Exchange Commission
10. Miami-Dade County
11. City of Miami

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